Scott Adam's Prediction List

Fray

Sep 3, 2023

Feel free to skip this preamble and the caveats if you’d like to get straight to the predictions.

Background

I’ve been listening to Real Coffee With Scott Adams daily for a number of years now and have witnessed several of his outrageous predictions come true. His most famous prediction was Trump’s win in the 2016 election. He was one of, if not the first, to publicly predict the Trump’s victory. He did so not on the basis of policy, but on Trump’s level of persuasion. In fact, he wrote an entire book on Trump’s persuasive power.

It feels to me that Scott has an unmatched power to predict the future. However, I am aware that this belief in his predictive abilities could be affected by any number of cognitive biases. This is why I want to make an objective list of Scott’s predictions to see whether they come to fruition or not.

I know I’m starting this late into his dabble with politics. I wish I had started this earlier to capture everything from the beginning. But that time has passed and it’s better late than never!

The ‘Rules’

This list is officially starting on the 5th of August 2023. I would like to put down some of his notable predictions from before this date, but this would inevitably lead to me missing some. If he restates them, I’ll add them to the list.

If he states a prediction has come true and that prediction was made before the 5th of August I will not note it as it’s possible he could be suffering from confirmation bias. I wouldn’t want it to be the case that he brings up his correct predictions, but not his incorrect ones (although from experience he usually does).

Links will be provided, as well as proof of his prediction coming true or being falsified. Some are easy to know if he got them right or wrong, such as his prediction that Russia will not invade Ukraine. Others may be more ambiguous. Either way, it can be up to you to decide whether he got it right or not.

To Note:

Predictions are not necessarily a desire for the outcome to happen, nor is it a judgment on if it’s good or bad. It’s just predicting it will happen.
Scott has said many times that he’s not sure if he’s predicting, or if he can see how things are inevitably going to go.
He believes in simulation theory and some individuals are able to author the simulation. He states he is unsure if he’s authoring it.
I’m much less interested in proving Scott right than I am in seeing what’s true.
It’s possible for me to have misinterpreted Scott’s words, listen to what he says his prediction is, not my interpretation of it.
Many predictions are not certainties, but probabilities.
I’m putting the dates as DD/MM/YYYY because I’m not American.

The Predictions

05/08/2023 - Andrew Tate will not be jailed.

06/08/2023 - In 5 years, 30% of men will have AI-generated companions.

12/08/2023, 14/08/2023 - Trump will find election fraud that changed the result of the 2020 election before the vote is cast in 2024.

Scott later said, (14/09/2023) that this was not a prediction.

13/08/2023 - We will eventually lose all our privacy (in terms of communication and government).

15/08/2023 - During the Hawaii wildfires while on vacation, Jill Biden told Joe Biden to not run for reelection in 2024. Joe accepted this decision.

Partly Incorrect - Scott now thinks Joe did not accept this decision (still speculation, however).

18/08/2023 - The person in charge of releasing the water during the Hawaii wildfires did not choose to do so due to ‘cultural reasons’ or being a ‘climate change lover’ - there’s a 5% chance this is true.

19/08/2023 - If there was a debate between Joe Biden and Vivek Ramaswamy MSNBC would have a technical problem where they go off the air, or there would be no debate at all.

19/08/2023 - The prosecutor Fani Willis got a call to say that Trump had to be indicted on Monday to cover up a bad news story.

19/08/2023 - It’s “largely guaranteed” that there’s a RICO problem in the Democratic Party regarding the 2020 election.

20/08/2023 - The amount of people having relationships with AI will not be much bigger than the furry population.

23/08/2023 - In 2 years, maybe sooner, the news will be reporting that AI is less impressive than we initially thought.

25/08/2023 - In 20 years there will be no cash payments, everything will be digital.

25/08/2023 - It is guaranteed some people will merge with robots.

28/08/2023 - There will be a story similar to George Floyd, amplified by the news, designed in a way to hurt Trump’s numbers with the black vote.

03/08/2023 - The “Blood Tribe”, a group of Neo-Nazis who were filmed in Florida is made up of mostly real racists. They only existed online until a fed organised them. Follows up by saying there will be a race hoax in 2024.

03/08/2023 - There’s no chance of American troops fighting in the Russia/Ukraine war.

08/09/2023 - If Ukraine is about to lose the war, and it is totally necessary, there will be a massive wave of drones that attack the Russian invaders. The main controller of this would be an American—50/50 chance.

12/09/2023 - There’s a concern that there will be an AI deepfake coming out in October 2024 that will change the election. Given this is true, it’s more likely we will think a real thing is faked, than a fake thing is real.

12/09/2023 - Democrats will not allow AI to be a fact-checker unless they corrupt it so badly that it can’t fact-check.

13/09/2023 - China will not attack Taiwan before the 2024 election.

19/09/2023 - In four to five years the news will stop talking about climate change without anything changing.